"Great things are done by a series of small things brought together."
―Vincent Van Gogh
Note: this article adapted, shortened and updated from chapter 17 in Hacking Communities. References to quotes and articles can be found in the book.
Engineering serendipity means increasing the chance of relevant connections by increasing the rate (and relevance) of collisions between people.
It's like collision theory applied to humans. Your goal is to increase the probability of effective encounters. While not every collision yields a successful reaction, the more (relevant) collisions, the more likely successful reactions are to happen.
In short, the more people bump into each other, the more likely they will have serendipitous conversations that lead to special relationships.
Engineering serendipity is not about controlling each connection but increasing the rate of collisions that could engender them. Your role is not to make each relevant conversation happen but to make space for these.
Your purpose is to scale your role as a connector. There is a limit to the number of introductions that one person can make on a one-on-one basis—as your community grows, the less you'll be able to put a name to a face and strategically introduce people where you think it makes sense. That's when you throw parties with a purpose. As we've discussed, it is not about the party but the conversations around the table.
It is about architecting spaces and circumstances that favor collisions between people who otherwise would never bump into each other; and designing communities for diversity by breaking down walls and building bridges.
Collision Theory in a Nutshell
Let's go back to school for a minute.
The rate of chemical reactions is proportional to the number of collisions between reactant molecules. Molecules must collide to react, but not every collision leads to a successful reaction. It depends on the amount of energy (the minimum is called activation energy) and the molecule's orientation.
In chemistry, different factors can increase the rate of reaction by affecting the frequency of particle collision, including concentration, temperature, surface area, pressure and using catalysts.
Ok, but we’re talking about people. While we could make analogies between every single factor, like temperature (turn the music up, increase excitement in the room) and surface area (increase a sense of vulnerability, get them to share deeper), I prefer to make this already-complex metaphor into an applicable three-factor thing that encompasses all the above.
Let’s simplify it to communities: not every encounter will lead to a relevant connection, but we increase the probability of these by increasing the rate and relevance of collisions between people.
Critical elements that increase the serendipity rate:
a. Frequency: keeping a cadence of encounters consistent over time.
b. Density: curate and design spaces conducive to relevant conversations
c. Catalysts: optimize for relevance by leveraging anything that accelerates trust and leads to successful connections.
To engineer serendipity, manage the variables you can.
Let go of the rest.
Increasing Serendipity Rates
"Sitting quietly, doing nothing, Spring comes, and the grass grows by itself."
—Matsuo Bashō
You can't control the outcome (relevant connections), but you can manage variables that lead to it. Let's dive deep into Frequency, Density, and Catalysts.
Frequency
Variable: Time
Cadence is fundamental. How regularly do people bump into each other?
There is no relationship building without consistent encounters. Trust is built over time. Connecting people through recurring meetings builds familiarity and accelerates the process of belonging.
Density
Variable: Space (and Curation)
Build closeness and intimacy through space, physical or virtual. The essence of the community is that it is not a monologue but a lively conversation that goes in all directions. You must create and curate spaces that lead to relevant connections.
There is a strong correlation between space and curation, leading to relevance. You want to optimize every bit of room for collisions. There is an optimal ratio to the number of people you would bring together for different purposes. For instance, if you aim to deepen relationships between people, you are better off hosting a small dinner than a festival. In doing so, we wouldn't want to host a fifteen-person party in a football stadium. You want to make it curated and cozy.
Creating a conducive setting is crucial. But that's worth another article. :)
Catalyst
Variable: Trust (or Relevance)
A catalyst boosts the rate of reactions by accelerating trust.
It sparks those seemingly spontaneous connections. - When we meet someone who feels familiar, we bond faster than usual. Consciously or not, it stems from the perceived trust provided by relevance. This sense of "inherited trust derives from commonalities: a friend in common, a trusted brand, shared music taste, or having gone to the same university.
Relevance enhances our predisposition to connect with others.
It can be defined by:
Curation: invite only (or selection process involved)
Seniority: people who've achieved something above average
Familiarity: inherited trust from a brand or previous knowledge. Having something in common, whether a friend or an interest.
Connectors within your community can also be considered catalysts.
In short, a high-relevance context = a higher probability of connection.
Serendipity leads to Creativity: The Water Cooler Effect
Steve Jobs reportedly believed creativity was a result of serendipity.
Walter Isaacson, his biographer, quotes Steve Jobs saying, "Creativity comes from spontaneous meetings, from random discussions. You run into someone, you ask what they're doing, you say 'Wow,' and soon you're cooking up all sorts of ideas."
The Pixar studios were designed for this, with an atrium intended to increase the rate of employees bumping into each other. It emulated a water cooler effect at scale.
According to Isaacson, Jobs had the Pixar building designed to promote encounters and unplanned collaborations "...to make people get out of their offices and mingle in the central atrium with people they might not otherwise see."
Renowned Pixar animator John Lasseter said the space "would draw you to the center, or have you crossing it, many times a day." It worked. He shares, "I kept running into people I hadn't seen for months. I've never seen a building that promoted collaboration and creativity as well as this one."
When designing experiences to build community, create "landmarks" that serve as conversation starters, and make the space purposefully inconvenient.
Diversity: a Serendipity Booster
Diversity is a remarkable serendipity accelerator. For unexpected collisions to occur, you must purposely attract a diverse group of people (who otherwise wouldn't meet) and build trust over time—mix people that belong together but do not know it yet.
Mixing crowds increase serendipitous encounters that spark creativity, which can render positive financial results. "Why Diversity Matters," a 2015 McKinsey study, reports that companies in the top quartile for diversity perform better than the rest. Racial and ethnic diversity can lead to thirty-five percent financial returns above the national average, while gender diversity leads to fifteen percent. Another study by Startup Genome shows that twenty percent of the world's top tech founders are immigrants, while this group represents only four percent of the world's population.
Only through diversity are we able to create something new from scratch. We can't expect a series of unexpectedly positive outcomes from conversations when only discussing the same topics, with the same people, with the same thinking.
We must purposely design communities with built-in diversity.
Four Steps to Serendipity
The aim is to get the hardcore and the curious groups interacting in one room. To do so, design invitations that cater to different crowds on a consistent timeline.
Step One: Build a Home
As seen in the previous articles: define your core (values, principles, and purpose) and your strategy to attract and engage people and get them committed.
Step Two: Engage the Hardcore*
Identify and engage the most committed to your community's core. Let's call these people the hardcore members.
As mentioned in the previous article, hardcore members may join you straight from the engagement stage; they "get it" faster. They're likely the most aware of your value proposition. To engage them, identify how you can create value for them because these people can add a ton of value to your community. Get them interested in your project and make sure they feel appreciated. Examples include inviting them to founders-only private dinners or inviting them to speak and share their thoughts.
Step Three: Start Catering to a Wider Crowd (Keeping the Hardcore Engaged)
Expand your focus to curious people who are not yet ready to plunge into your core. To attract them, keep the invitation simple. Gathering around food tends to be a popular solution across the world. Before they leave, give them a reason to come back. Invite them to stay in touch, inform them of the next event, and make them more aware of how they can engage with you.
Step Four: Keep Cadence And Start Mixing Crowds
By winning people's trust and sharing your core, you are likely building a bond beyond that initial invitation. The people who joined your previous engagements might be willing to take any future invitations you send because they trust you (personally or as in your brand).
You can create varied content at this stage that brings different crowds together. Here, you become a platform for diverse worlds to collide.
For as long as your community lives, you must continue attracting, engaging, and getting people to commit to your core.
*Note: A Framework for Purposefully Mixing People
Categorizing people as "hardcore" or "curious" is inspired by Schwartz's levels of awareness - which I'll cover briefly below; feel free to skip it. But you could also use it to connect hardcore and curious people from different backgrounds if they are engaged in the same topic. For example, bringing together techies (developers, coders), creatives (artists, designers), academics (teachers, researchers), and business people (sales, marketing, operations) to brainstorm climate change solutions.
Correlation between Awareness Levels and Levels of Contribution
Eugene Schwartz, a marketing expert and the author of Breakthrough Advertising, established the importance of customer awareness. He devised a formula with five distinct customer stages:
Unaware: they don't know they have a problem; they are the hardest to catch (not your focus).
Problem/pain aware: knows they have a problem but don't know solutions.
Solution aware: knows there are solutions but hasn't chosen one.
Product aware: knows about your product but isn't sure about it.
High aware: knows about your product and is likely interested.
Communities start and grow from people at different levels of awareness. Some are knee-deep into your core mission (hardcore), while others are just checking it out (curious). It is a good idea to cater to both groups to grow a complex and relevant community. As a community builder, you must not be the only one speaking: you can leverage member contributions to grow faster. For instance, by bringing the "most aware" ones to influence the most "problem aware."
For simplicity purposes, in Hacking Communities, I divide the other levels of awareness into just two: the curious ("solution aware" to "problem aware") and the hardcore ("product aware" to "most aware").
The hardcore group is generally the influencers, while the curious are the masses you want to influence.
For example, let's define that our goal is to create an entrepreneurial mindset by bringing in founders and seasoned entrepreneurs (the hardcore) to influence a society where fear of failure prevails by encouraging and supporting aspiring entrepreneurs (the curious). You likely get a niche, small crowd if you focus on the hardcore. You're also at risk of becoming a Cool Kids Club. If you only focus on the curious, you'll grow fast but miss out on the people who could help you drive change and spread your core more quickly. Ideally, the people in the second group (curious) must be connected with those in the first group (hardcore) to create a new mindset that favors entrepreneurship. The usual challenge? Hardcore people usually prefer sharing space knowledge with their peers, where they find more tangible value exchange. How can we mix these crowds?
Start by creating attraction and engagement activities catering to these different groups first. Example: host curated dinners for the hardcore, along with larger meetups hosting some of them as speakers but targeting the curious ones as attendees. Bring them together intentionally and build trust with each of them before mixing these groups.
The Actual Meaning of Serendipity
The word serendipity comes from a Persian fairy tale about the three princes of Serendib—the ancient name for today's Sri Lanka—who leave the comfort of their palace to travel the world, exploring places and making impressive discoveries along the way. While there's a magical aura around the world, "serendipity," today, there is a hint of detective fiction to the original tale: the princes befriend a nobleman thanks to their abilities to unveil the mystery behind the disappearance of a camel. At its core, the skills that give the three princes their "serendipitous abilities" are scientific, based on observation and cleverness. The key to such "serendipitous discoveries" in their journey isn't fortuitous but due to intentional observation. The princes are not merely lucky. They actively observe their surroundings, taking insights from experience to draw conclusions and make decisions.
Serendipitous events result from a curious and attentive state of mind that integrates previous experiences and learnings into the present. To engineer serendipitous encounters, you must prepare your community to be in the "serendipity mindset." I have a little formula for it:
Abundance + Curiosity = Serendipity.
It means to feel grateful for where you are (abundance) and what you have while remaining open and wide awake to opportunities (curious).
Serendipity often feels like magic. You (the community builder) must set the tone for it to happen. Create environments where people are at ease, attentive to new opportunities, and welcoming to unexpected outcomes.
I've read the article just now. It is full of input and thoughts to go deeper on. Thanks to Alessio Fattorini for sharing the article in his newsletter!
The best article about serendipity in community I ever read